Congress has stronger economic development record than Modi’s BJP

It is now time to pull together all the analysis in this series of GDP, HDI, and economic inequality trends for Gujarat and India to see how BJP and Congress fare on economic development.

Metric BJP performance Congress performance Advantage
GDP growth India: 6.0%, 6 years India: 7.9%, 9 years Congress
Gujarat: 10.3%, 11 years Gujarat: 15.4%, 3 years
HDI improvement Gujarat: below national average, behind most large states India: better than all comparable countries (including China) except Bangladesh Congress
Economic inequality Gujarat: middle-of-the-road performance, behind southern states and Maharashtra Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh: strong performance in reducing poverty levels Neither
India: smaller gap between consumption CAGRs of rich and poor – better performance India: widening gaps between consumption CAGRs of rich and poor – worse performance

Based on these comparisons, it is clear that Congress has the stronger record on economic development going into the 2014 elections. Narendra Modi’s performance in Gujarat has been marketed quite effectively, but the perception of his exceptional economic performance is not supported by the data. 

These conclusions are based on a set of detailed posts that show the data supporting them. All data has been cited so interested readers may verify and validate the numbers and the analysis performed. These posts are:

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4 Comments

  1. So Inflation, who will be adding that please?

    http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/X8ZMpHFhgvXNe89jZcGiUM/Claim-Check-Narendra-Modi-on-GDP-and-inflation-under-the-ND.html

    Wholesale price index based inflation during the NDA term averaged 4.8% while during the UPA regime till 2012-13, it averaged 6.7%.

    • Inflation has already been factored in. I used GDP numbers at constant prices published by the Reserve Bank. If you consider GDP numbers at current prices — i.e. without inflation adjustments — the CAGRs will be around 10% for the NDA years and around 15% for the UPA years.

  2. This ‘investigation’ is neither intelligent or provide anything of value. You seem to lack any knowledge on macroeconomics to even making such a comparison. For starters, GDP and hdi are not sufficient indicators of economic growth and can often times be very misleading.

    • What knowledge of macroeconomics that is required to perform this analysis do you think I lack?

      GDP and HDI are two headline numbers that indicate socioeconomic development. Inequality in a society can distort conclusions from an analysis of average incomes or average development, so I also included inequality in my analysis.

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